Climate change: It can (still) be achieved...
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the global green transformation is at a crucial point. The latest report from Allianz Research «A decade after Paris: progress, paralysis and the race to net zero» shows: Although progress varies greatly between countries and some challenges remain, many are progressing faster than generally assumed.
The Allianz Green Transition Tracker uses five indicators to assess 69 countries according to how far they are on the path to green transition. It analyzes carbon and energy intensity, consumption- and area-related emissions per capita and the share of low-carbon energy in the electricity mix. The tracker uses two assessment dimensions: the peer score, which compares the current status of decarbonization between countries, and the progress score, which measures each country's progress relative to the 2015 baseline and the 2050 net zero target.
Structural differences obvious
The country comparison reflects well-known structural differences. Countries with lower economic power, such as Sri Lanka, achieve good peer scores due to low per capita emissions, while European countries such as Sweden score well thanks to sustainable decarbonization measures and the expansion of clean energies. Oil-exporting economies, on the other hand, rank at the lower end of the scale. The positioning of the world's two largest emitters is particularly worrying: China and the USA are ranked 57th and 58th respectively - a clear indication of the extent of their remaining tasks.
The pace of decarbonization is encouraging, but is not yet sufficient. The progress score shows that 15 countries are already a third or more of the way towards net zero. They are therefore on track, provided they maintain their current pace.
Luxembourg and Switzerland lead the group
Both countries are characterized by high energy efficiency and an electricity mix in which over 90 percent of electricity comes from low-carbon sources. Another 20 countries have already made at least 20 percent of the way there - measurable, if still insufficient, progress. Other economies have much more catching up to do: The US and China, which together account for around 40 percent of global emissions, have made only marginal improvements since 2015.
«Climate policy continues to face major challenges, but we have already made significant progress and should not give up halfway,» said Patrick Hoffmann, ESG economist at Allianz Research. «About half of the countries surveyed remain on track to do their part to limit global warming. This does not mean that the mission is accomplished, but it shows that we are not lost. These examples should serve as motivation for the laggards, including China and the United States.»
Switzerland takes 2nd place in the progress ranking
Since 2015, the country has already closed 55% of the gap in the climate protection indicators under review and remains on track to keep global warming within the Paris 2°C target. Emissions have fallen by 23 percent since 2005, while gross domestic product has grown by 43 percent. As a result, the carbon intensity of the economy has fallen by 25 percent in the last decade and the share of global CO₂ emissions has fallen from 0.17 percent to 0.08 percent. Low-carbon energy now covers 99.6 percent of electricity generation, with renewable energy from wind and solar accounting for 21 percent. Nevertheless, the transformation is not proceeding evenly in all areas: Emissions in final consumption remain high and there is a need to catch up in both the transportation sector and agriculture.
«Switzerland is now one of the clear frontrunners in the climate transformation,» said Katharina Utermöhl, Head of Thematic and Policy Research at Allianz Research. «The almost completely CO₂-free electricity mix gives the country an exceptionally strong foundation. In order for this lead to last, the transformation must now be more broadly anchored and consistently continued - this is the only way Switzerland can maintain its ambitious course and achieve its climate targets.»
Climate turnaround far from achieved, but (still) feasible
The report concludes that although the global climate transition is far from complete, it is by no means a failure. «The green transition is not a question of opportunity, but of speed,» said Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Allianz. «Countries that embed climate targets into their economic and financial frameworks are positioning themselves for stronger, more resilient growth. The challenge now is to accelerate investment where it matters most - energy, infrastructure and technology - to ensure that the green transition remains both credible and inclusive.»
Source: www.allianz.com
